360 Picks: Week 6


The pendulum swung back in favor of the straight picks, with a 4-0 week on the high picks (also our suicide picks) and an 11-4 week overall. Our record against the spread dipped below .500 with another 5 win week. Over/Unders continue to gum up the works. That will be a major overhaul job in the off season – the computer is zigging when it should zag on those, or is it overing when it should under?

First let’s look at how we’ve done, then we’ll move on to this week’s selections.

Straight up: 4-0 on High confidence picks, 7-4 on Low. 11-4 Overall
Straight up season: 19-10 on High confidence picks, 24-23 on low. 43-33 Overall

Spread: 2-2 on High confidence picks, 3-8 on Low. 5-10 Overall
Spread season: 11-11 on High Confidence Picks, 25-27-2 on Low. 36-38-2 Overall

OU: 0-2 on High confidence Picks, 5-8 on Low. 5-10 Overall
Season OU: 1-6 on High confidence picks, 31-37-1 on Low. 32-43-1 Overall

Parley Picks: Missed, 0-2. 0-5 Overall. Missed on the Eagles and Saints. Beginning to think the Saints aren’t a good team in 2014
Suicide Selections: 4-0, 14-6 Overall. now we’re talking

360 Picks Week 5:

Denver Broncos at New York Jets:

Line: Broncos by 10.0
Over/Under: 48.0

Analysis: The quarterback controversy with the Jets seems to be which one is less prepared. How Michael Vick couldn’t anticipate that he might go into the game last week is unfathomable. Then again, he is Michael Vick, one of the most detestable human beings on the planet, and nothing should come as a surprise. This week the Jets face Peyton Manning and his leather helmet. Lay the points even though the spread has steadily increased from 7.5 to 10.0 since Tuesday.

Straight Pick: Broncos
Spread Pick: Broncos – 10.0
OU Pick: Under 48.0

Confidence: High on the Straight and the Under, Low on the Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns:

Line: Browns by 1.0
Over/Under: 47.0

Analysis: The Steelers are underdogs to the cardiac kids. It’s virtually a pick em game, but isn’t that how all of Cleveland’s game have ended. Let’s jump on the bandwagon. Cleveland wins, but only by a point. We’ll take the Steelers with the point, in case it’s a tie. When in doubt, take the point(s).

Straight Pick: Browns
Spread Pick: Steelers + 1.0
OU Pick: Under 47.0

Confidence:  Low on all three picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans:

Line: Titans by 4.0
Over/Under: 43.0

Analysis: If it wasn’t for gambling and fantasy football, this game would hold all of the excitement of grass growing. In winter. Both teams are bad, but Tennessee should be good enough to win the game, but covering more than a field goal is another matter entirely. Fantasy players will be pleased that Bishop Sankey will be getting the majority of carries as Shonn Greene is ailing This is his chance to lay claim to the starting job.

Straight Pick: Titans
Spread Pick: Jaguars + 4.0
OU Pick: Under 43.0

Confidence: Low on the Straight and Spread, High on the Under.

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins:

Line: Packers by 4.0
Over/Under: 49.0

Analysis: The Dolphins have been playing well at home. While the Packers have played better football of late, they are 4-6-1 on the road against the spread and 5-6 straight up in the last season plus. Take the home team and the points.

Straight Pick: Dolphins
Spread Pick: Dolphins + 4.0
OU Pick: Over 49.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings:

Line: Vikings by 1.0
Over/Under: 43.0

Analysis: Teddy Bridgewater should be back under center and will give the Vikings offense a spark at home. The Lions are a Jekyll and Hyde team. Mr Hyde shows up on the road after making a home appearance last week.

Straight Pick: Vikings
Spread Pick: Vikings – 1.0
OU Pick: Under 43.0

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals:

Line: Bengals by 6.5
Over/Under: 43.5

Analysis: Cincinnati at home is 10-0 straight up and against the spread since the beginning of the 2013 season. Expect a bounce back from the national humiliation suffered at the hands of the Patriots. The Panthers deserve credit for somehow finding a way to win at home last week with no running backs or receivers. At Cincinnati, it’s a magnitude of order more difficult.

Straight Pick: Bengals
Spread Pick: Bengals – 6.5
OU Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:

Line: Patriots by 3.0
Over/Under: 45.0

Analysis: Speaking of Jekyll and Hyde teams, you have two of them here. The Bills are the hardest team to get a handle on and the Patriots took out their frustration on the Bengals who looked to be in their mid-1990’s for last Sunday night. Buffalo will want to impress their new owners at home, expect Dr. Jekyll to show up on Sunday.

Straight Pick: Bills
Spread Pick: Bills + 3.0
OU Pick: Under 45.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Line: Ravens by 4.0
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: Tampa Bay returns home after two good performances by Mike Glennon under center gave them a split at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans. Baltimore is not a good road team, going 3-6-1 against the spread and 3-7 straight up in the past year plus. Take the points and the Buccaneers.

Straight Pick: Buccaneers
Spread Pick: Buccaneers + 4.0
OU Pick: Over 44.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons:

Line: Falcons by 3.0
Over/Under: 55.0

Analysis: This is a difficult game to pick. The Falcons play well at home, but still have their patchwork offensive line in place. The Bears are an enigma, looking like world beaters against San Francisco and then laying an egg against a beat up Panthers team. Take the home team to win, but the Bears to keep it close. 55 is a lot of points.

Straight Pick: Falcons
Spread Pick: Bears + 3.5
OU Pick: Under 55.0

Confidence: Low on the Straight and Spread, High on the Under

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders:

Line: Chargers by 8.0
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: Oakland has a new head coach, but the same lousy players. I hope Justin Tuck is enjoying his big game checks, because otherwise it’s going to be a long season for him in silver and black.

Straight Pick: Chargers
Spread Pick: Chargers – 8.0
OU Pick: Under 44.5

Confidence: High on the Straight; Low on the Spread and Under

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks:

Line: Seahawks by 7.5
Over/Under: 46.5

Analysis: Cowboys opponents to date have a winning percentage of 41.66% and the four they’ve defeated 38.84%. Seattle has the top defense in both rushing yards per game and yard per carry, providing the biggest test to date for the Cowboys impressive rushing attack. The game is in Seattle and, therefore, we like the Seahawks to win and cover.

Straight Pick: Seahawks
Spread Pick: Seahawks – 7.5
OU Pick: Over 46.5

Confidence: High on the Straight; Low on the Spread and Under

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals:

Line: Cardinals by 3.5
Over/Under: 45.0

Analysis: The Cardinals quarterback situation is unsettled with both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton questionable. Rookie Logan Thomas could get the start. Arizona should still win the game, but the Redskins will keep it close.

Straight Pick: Cardinals
Spread Pick: Redskins + 3.5
OU Pick: Over 45.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles:

Line: Eagles by 3.0
Over/Under: 51.0

Analysis: Eagles opponents to date have a winning percentage of 29.17%, further, the four teams they’ve beaten have a stellar 4-15 record, a 21.05 winning percentage. The Giants opponents have won half their game, while the three teams they’ve beaten are 6-9, a 40 win percentage. Take the Giants and the points, they are the better team. Assuming special teams doesn’t lost the game for them.

Straight Pick: Giants
Spread Pick: Giants + 3.0
OU Pick: Over 51.0

Confidence: High on the Spread and the Straight; Low on the Over

San Francisco Forty-Niners at St. Louis Rams:

Line: Forty-Niners by 3.5
Over/Under: 43.5

Analysis: The Rams have played the Forty-Niners tough at home and are always up for their division games. They don’t have enough to win, but Austin Davis will sling the ball and keep it close.

Straight Pick: Forty-Niners
Spread Pick: Rams + 3.5
OU Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

 

If you want to play a parley: The best of the high confidence picks… Vikings -1.0, Giants + 3.0, Bengals – 6.5

If you’re in a suicide pool: In order… Seahawks, Bengals, Chargers, and Broncos

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