360 picks: Week 4


The third week is in the books, and Giants360 game picks against the spread rolled out a monster week, going 11-4-1, bringing our season winning percentage to 56.5%. On our straight up picks, we continue to tread water, going 8-8. We didn’t like many over/unders last week, and it showed. We hit the game we did like, but went 3-12 in the others. We’ve decided to roll out a different over/under model to see if we can improve our percentage there, but the focus is always picking against the spread, and last week was a success. Now we try for two in a row.

First let’s look at how we’ve done, then we’ll move on to this week’s selections.

Straight up: 3-2 on High confidence picks, 5-6 on Low. 8-8 Overall
Straight up season: 12-7 on High confidence picks, 13-16 on low. 25-23 Overall

Spread: 5-2 on High confidence picks, 6-2-1 on Low. 11-4-1 Overall
Spread season: 8-7 on High Confidence Picks, 18-13-2 on Low. 26-20-2 Overall

OU: 1-0 on High confidence Picks, 3-12 on Low. 4-12 Overall
Season OU: 1-4 on High confidence picks, 19-23-1 on Low. 20-27-1 Overall

Parley Picks: Missed, 0-1. 0-3 Overall. Missed on the Bills.
Suicide Selections: 3-1, 8-4 Overall. Missed on the Panthers. Pittsburgh’s run game was on fire Sunday night.

360 Picks Week 4:

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears:

Line: Packers by 1.5
Over/Under: 50.0

Analysis: Green Bay looked awful against Detroit, scoring only one touchdown on a turnover assisted drive. Chicago started strong on Monday Night against the Jets and held off a late New York surge for the victory. Until Green Bay straightens out it’s offensive line problems, it’s hard to pick them. Go with the home team and the points.

Straight Pick: Bears
Spread Pick: Bears + 1.5
OU Pick: Under 50.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders:

Line: Dolphins by 3.5
Over/Under: 41.0

Analysis: The Dolphins were brutalized by the Chiefs at home last Sunday and now get to travel all the way to soggy London to play the Raiders, who gave the Patriots all they could handle in Foxboro. I’m not confident in either team, but Oakland has show spirit. Take them, and the points and hope for the best. Tally Ho.

Straight Pick: Raiders
Spread Pick: Raiders + 3.5
OU Pick: Over 41.0

Confidence:  Low on all three picks.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans:

Line: Texans by 3.0
Over/Under: 41.0

Analysis: Houston limps home after getting spanked by the Giants to take on a surprising 2-1 Buffalo team that laid an egg against the Chargers last weekend. If Arian Foster plays, Houston should handle the Bills easily. Even if he doesn’t, their defense should shut down E.J. Manual who isn’t nearly the quarterback Eli Manning is.

Straight Pick: Texans
Spread Pick: Texans – 3.0
OU Pick: Under 41.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts:

Line: Colts by 8.0
Over/Under: 46.0

Analysis: Tennessee may be without quarterback Jake Locker, who is questionable is a strained wrist. The real question is – will that help or hurt the 1-2 Titans? The Colts just put put another touchdown on the Jaguars, and their offense is hitting it’s groove. Lay the points.

Straight Pick: Colts
Spread Pick: Colts – 8.0
OU Pick: Over 46.0

Confidence: High on the Spread and Straight; Low on the Over

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens:

Line: Ravens by 3.0
Over/Under: 41.0

Analysis: Baltimore plays well at home, and Carolina is running out of running backs. They could turn to their passing game, if they had any wide receivers. The Panthers defense should keep this one close, but the home team wins.

Straight Pick: Ravens
Spread Pick: Panthers + 3.0
OU Pick: Under 41.0

Confidence: High on the Straight; Low on the Spread and the Under

Detroit Lions at New York Jets:

Line: Lions by 2.5
Over/Under: 45.0

Analysis: Detroit has looked good, at home. This game is at Metlife Stadium where the Jets played well after spotting Chicago 14 points in the first quarter on Monday night. If their pass rush can get to Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and company won’t be able to take advantage of the the Jets weak secondary. If they can’t, this one could get ugly.

Straight Pick: Jets
Spread Pick: Jets + 2.5
OU Pick: Under 45.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers:

Line: Steelers by 8.5
Over/Under: 45.0

Analysis: Pittsburgh beat up the Panthers and themselves in the process. James Harrison is forfeiting his social security benefits to come back to the Steelers, but they should still have enough to overwhelm the hapless Buccaneers. Unless last Thursday really was 76 Bucs Throwback night.

Straight Pick: Steelers
Spread Pick: Steelers – 8.5
OU Pick: Over 45.0

Confidence: High on the Straight, Low on the Spread and the Over

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers:

Line: Chargers by 13.5
Over/Under: 46.0

Analysis: Blake Bortles first professional start will take place in 2015 this Sunday in San Diego. After swearing on a stack of old national geographics, his mother’s appendix, and children’s community college education fund that Bortles would sit this season out to learn behind Chad Henne, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has pressed the panic button already and put the rookie in the lineup. Bortles is a wildcard and could do enough to cover this big spread, or throw enough interceptions to ensure another 44-17 massacre. Big spreads usually mean take the points in the NFL, so we will.

Straight Pick: Chargers
Spread Pick: Jaguars + 13.5
OU Pick: Under 46.0

Confidence: High on the Straight, Low on the Spread and the Over

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco Forty-Niners:

Line: Forty-Niners by 4.0
Over/Under: 51.5

Analysis: When Giants360 saw this spread, we checked it to make sure it was correct. Then looked again. After beating the Cowboys on opening day, the Forty-Niners have dropped their next two games and are in danger of falling out of the race for the NFC West. The Eagles, meanwhile, have worn opponents down with their up tempo offense and rallied to win their first three games and travel west for the second regular season game at the Field of Jeans. In studying decades of points spreads and game outcomes under an old incandescent light in a back alley, I’ve learned that when a spread seems extremely unusual, go against your visceral reaction. Lay the points.

Straight Pick: Forty-Niners
Spread Pick: Forty-Niners – 4.0
OU Pick: Over 51.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings:

Line: Falcons by 3.5
Over/Under: 47.0

Analysis: The Falcons dismembered the Buccaneers and left the carcass out for carrion birds to pick through. But on their way to scoring 56 points, they also turned the ball over 4 times. Minnesota hung in longer against New Orleans than anyone expected, especially with Teddy Bridgewater under center and Adrian Peterson in Texas desperately trying to settle his child abuse case. The Falcons take the Vikings lightly and get picked off in an upset special. Take the points.

Straight Pick: Vikings
Spread Pick: Vikings + 3.5
OU Pick: Under 47.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys:

Line: Saints by 4.0
Over/Under: 53.0

Analysis: Raise your hand if you expected the Cowboys to have given up 150 points by this points in the season. They’ve only given up 69, have scored 77, and find themselves relevant at 2-1. Their formula this season includes a 50/50 run pass ratio that keeps the defense off the field and Tony Romo’s back from being hit more often than absolutely necessary. They even stuck to it down 21 to the Rams and managed to come all the back to win the game. New Orleans is still Sean Payton’s team, and will try to throw, throw, throw and take advantage of the Cowboys biggest weakness – the secondary. They’ll succeed.

Straight Pick: Saints
Spread Pick: Saints – 4.0
OU Pick: Under 53.0

Confidence: High on the Spread and Straight; Low on the Under

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs:

Line: Patriots by 3.5
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: News FlashNew England is an average team this season. News Flash II: Kansas City might not be quite that good. After barely surviving their home opener against the Raiders. The Raiders? New England travels to Kansas City for a Monday night match up with the Chiefs, coming off a 34-15 thrashing of the Dolphins. Miami whooped New England in 33-20 in the season opener, so by the transitive property of mathematics, Kansas City should win this one by [(34-15) + (33-20)], carry the 1, 32 points, right? Wrong. New England eats Alex Smith alive and wins by more than 3.5.

Straight Pick: Patriots
Spread Pick: Patriots – 3.5
OU Pick: Over 44.5

Confidence: High on the Spread and Straight; Low on the Under

 

If you want to play a parley: The best of the high confidence picks… Colts – 8.0, Saints – 3.0, Patriots – 3.5

If you’re in a suicide pool: In order… Colts, Chargers, Steelers, and Patriots

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