360 Picks: Week 3


With two weeks in the books, Giants360 is hovering around a coin flip with our picks in all three areas. The Seahawks being upset by the Chargers, and the Bears comeback spoiling the Forty-Niners Field of Jeans opening game spoiled what was setting up to be a good week. We soldier on, committed to bring you accurate picks. Our computer models are analyzing this season’s data and should be spitting out better selections going forward, as witnessed on Thursday night, when we hit on all 3 picks during 76 Bucs Throwback Thursday.

First let’s look at how we’ve done, then we’ll move on to this week’s selections.

Straight up: 3-3 on High confidence picks, 5-5 on Low. 8-8 Overall
Straight up season: 9-5 on High confidence picks, 8-10 on low. 17-15 Overall

Spread: 1-3 on High confidence picks, 6-6 on Low. 7-9 Overall
Spread season: 3-5 on High Confidence Picks, 12-11-1 on Low. 15-16-1 Overall

OU: 0-2 on High confidence Picks, 9-5 on Low. 9-7 Overall
Season OU: 0-4 on High confidence picks, 16-11-1 on Low. 16-15-1 Overall

Parley Picks: Missed, 0-1. 0-2 Overall. Missed on the Seahawks  and Saints/Browns Under this week
Suicide Selections: 2-2, 5-3 Overall. The Seahawks aren’t supposed to lose. Also missed on the Field of Jeans pick.

360 Picks Week 3:

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills:

Line: Bills by 2.5
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: The Chargers travel to the east coast for an early kickoff following a huge upset of Seattle. It’s a letdown game for the Chargers, meanwhile, the Bills are playing like a real NFL franchise.

Straight Pick: Bills
Spread Pick: Bills – 2.5
OU Pick: Over 44.5

Confidence: High on the Spread and Straight, Low on the Over

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams:

Line: Cowboys by 1.0
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: The Cowboys showed signs of defense against Tennessee, and the Rams offense is Pathetic. It’s not enough points to take the home team.

Straight Pick: Rams
Spread Pick: Rams + 1.0
OU Pick: Under 44.5

Confidence:  Low on all three picks.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles:

Line: Eagles by 6.5
Over/Under: 50.5

Analysis: Division opponents that tend to play close games. It could be the Eagles by a touchdown, but Kirk Cousins will take advantage of a poor Eagles secondary and keep it close.

Straight Pick: Eagles
Spread Pick: Redskins + 6.5
OU Pick: Under 50.5

Confidence: High on the spread, Low on the straight and Under

Houston Texans at New York Giants:

Line: Texans by 2.5
Over/Under: 41.0

Analysis: Texans strength – defensive line. Giants weakness – offensive line. Lay the points.

Straight Pick: Texans
Spread Pick: Texans – 2.5
OU Pick: Over 41.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints:

Line: Saints by 10.0
Over/Under: 49.0

Analysis: The Saints play much better at dome than on the road. (Not a typo). The Vikings play much worse without Adrian Peterson than with him.

Straight Pick: Saints
Spread Pick: Saints – 10.0
OU Pick: Under 49.0

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Under

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals:

Line: Bengals by 7.5
Over/Under: 42.5

Analysis: Cincinnati is an outstanding home team. The extra half point is concerning, but the Bengals should win this one by double digits.

Straight Pick: Bengals
Spread Pick: Bengals – 7.5
OU Pick: Under 42.5

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns:

Line: Ravens by 2.0
Over/Under: 41.0

Analysis: This is one of those games where one looks at the spread and knows that odds makers are begging you to take the Browns. But I can’t find a reason to take the Ravens – the Browns defense is better, and their offense is showing surprising signs of life.

Straight Pick: Browns
Spread Pick: Browns + 2.0
OU Pick: Under 41.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:

Line: Pick Em
Over/Under: 54.0

Analysis: The Lions defensive line should overwhelm the Packers offensive line the way they did the Giants. And they are a better team at home.

Straight Pick: Lions
Spread Pick: Lions even
OU Pick: Over 54.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars:

Line: Colts by 7.0
Over/Under: 45.0

Analysis: The Jaguars aren’t as bad as they’ve looked, but aren’t ready to beat a desperate Colts team quite yet. Blake Bortles watch can commence.

Straight Pick: Colts
Spread Pick: Colts – 7.0
OU Pick: Under 45.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots:

Line: Patriots by 14.0
Over/Under: 46.5

Analysis: Another west coast team traveling east for an early kickoff. But 14 is a lot of wood. Patriots win, but covering is another matter.

Straight Pick: Patriots
Spread Pick: Raiders + 14.0
OU Pick: Over 46.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

San Francisco Forty-Niners at Arizona Cardinals:

Line: Forty-Niners by 3.0
Over/Under: 42.0

Analysis: Drew Stanton can’t win two in a row. Especially not against an angry Forty-Niner squad that blew a big lead against Chicago.

Straight Pick: Forty-Niners
Spread Pick: Forty-Niners – 3.0
OU Pick: Under 42.0

Confidence: High on the Spread and Straight and the Under

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks:

Line: Seahawks by 5.0
Over/Under: 48.5

Analysis: The Super Bowl rematch. Have the Broncos improved enough to beat Seattle on the road? That’s a more challenging task than beating them at a neutral site. The Broncos thought Metlife was loud in February – just wait.

Straight Pick: Seahawks
Spread Pick: Seahawks – 5.0
OU Pick:  Over 48.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins:

Line: Dolphins by 4.0
Over/Under: 42.5

Analysis: Miami let down after upsetting New England and got blown away by Buffalo on the road. Kansas City played Denver tough in Denver, but fell short. This will be a close game, but home field will prevail.

Straight Pick: Dolphins
Spread Pick: Chiefs + 4.0
OU Pick: Under 42.5

Confidence: High on the Spread, Low on all Straight and the Under

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers:

Line: Panthers by 3.5
Over/Under: 42.0

Analysis: Another game that will be close. The Panthers should beat the Steelers, who laid an egg last Thursday against the Ravens, but it won’t be a blowout.

Straight Pick: Panthers
Spread Pick: Steelers + 3.5
OU Pick: Under 42.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Chicago Bears at New York Jets:

Line: Jets by 3.0
Over/Under: 45.5

Analysis: The Bears travel cross country with an extra day’s rest. After rallying to beat the Forty-Niners, they take the depleted Jets secondary. A good game to close out the weekend with the Jets winning but not covering. A push wouldn’t shock me.

Straight Pick: Jets
Spread Pick: Bears + 3.0
OU Pick: Under 45.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

 

If you want to play a parley: The best of the high confidence picks… Bills -2.5, Bengals – 7.5, and Saints – 10.0. [Note: Would have included the Falcons if not Thursday game. Did in the “real” world.]

If you’re in a suicide pool: In order… Patriots, Bengals, Saints, and Panthers.

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