360 Picks: Week 2


Week 1 in the NFL is always a risky proposition for gamblers. Teams haven’t revealed their personalities, new player roles are undefined, and defenses tend to be well ahead of offenses at this point in the season. In reviewing our week 1 selections, we’re pleased to be around the .500 mark to start out the year.

Straight up: 6-2 on High confidence picks, 3-5 on Low. 9-7 Overall
Spread: 2-2 on High confidence picks, 6-5-1 on Low. 8-7-1 Overall
OU: 0-2 on High confidence Picks, 7-6-1 on Low. 7-8-1 Overall

Parley Picks: Missed, 0-1. Missed on the Steelers/Browns Under
Suicide Selections: 3-1, The Bears bit us on the butt. As I’m sure they did to many others.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers:

Line: Panthers by 2.5
Over/Under: 44.0

Analysis: The Lions secondary is banged up, but the Panthers may not be able to take full advantage with their weapons. Cam Newton returns, which should be enough for a Panther win at home, but the Lions offense will keep it close, in a low scoring game.

Straight Pick: Panthers
Spread Pick: Lions + 2.5
OU Pick: Under 44.0

Confidence: High on the Straight, Low on the Spread and Under

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:

Line: Bills by 1.0
Over/Under: 42.0

Analysis: Both teams played over their head in winning their opening games, but in beating division rival New England, the Dolphins are more in line for a let down facing the Bills on the road.

Straight Pick: Bills
Spread Pick: Bills – 1.0
OU Pick: Over 42.0

Confidence:  Low on all three picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins:

Line: Redskins by 6.0
Over/Under: 43.0

Analysis: There is nothing about this game between two bad teams that I like. The Jaguars had the Eagles on the ropes at halftime and just fell apart in the second half. The Redskins never showed up to play the Texans. Someone has to win, so the home team is the pick, but take the points and the under, if you must pick this game.

Straight Pick: Redskins
Spread Pick: Jaguars + 6.0
OU Pick: Under 43.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans:

Line: Titans by 3.0
Over/Under: 49.0

Analysis: The Titans beat a surprisingly bad Kansas City team on the road, and now returns home to face the 0-1 Cowboys. Expected to be historically awful, the Cowboys defense only gave up 28 points to the Forty-Niners. They will keep it close against the Titans and 49 is a lot of points.

Straight Pick: Titans
Spread Pick: Cowboys + 3.0
OU Pick: Under 49.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Arizona Cardinals ay New York Giants:

Line: Cardinals by 3.5
Over/Under: 42.5

Analysis: Sorry Giants fans, but their pathetic showing against the Lions doesn’t bode well for a home win against a good Arizona team. The Giants passing game is not going to get back on track against the Cardinals secondary. If the Giants can run the ball, they will keep it close.

Straight Pick: Cardinals
Spread Pick: Giants + 3.5
OU Pick: Over 42.5

Confidence: Low on all three picks

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings:

Line: Patriots by 3.5
Over/Under: 49.5

Analysis: New England usually bounces back after a loss better than any team in the NFL, but Miami may have exposed their offensive and defensive lines last week. It’s hard to pick against the Patriots this week, but I’m not feeling warm and fuzzy about it. Expect it to be high scoring.

Straight Pick: Patriots
Spread Pick: Patriots – 3.5
OU Pick: Over 49.5

Confidence: Low on the Straight and Spread, High on the Over

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns:

Line: Saints by 7.5
Over/Under: 47.5

Analysis: New Orleans is not the same team on the road, going 6-11 in their last 17, away from the Superdome (5-12 against the spread). But, prepare to be shocked, the Saint defense is better than Pittburgh’s and will shut down Bobby Hoyer and the resurgent Browns offense without Ben Tate or Josh Gordon. New Orleans has also been an under in 6 of their last 9 road games.

Straight Pick: Saints
Spread Pick: Saints – 7.5
OU Pick: Under 47.5

Confidence: Low on the Straight and Spread, High on the Under

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals:

Line: Bengals by 4.0
Over/Under: 48.5

Analysis: The Falcons will be down to their third left tackle as first round Jake Matthews will miss this game against the Bengals stout defense. The Bengals running game is solid and will control the ball. Cincinnati was 8-0 at home against the spread in 2013, that streak will continue on Sunday.

Straight Pick: Bengals
Spread Pick: Bengals – 4.0
OU Pick: Over 48.5

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Line: Buccaneers by 6.0
Over/Under: 37.0

Analysis: Tampa Bay showed signs of life in the fourth quarter against Carolina last week. St. Louis was on life support for the entire game against Minnesota, and lost “starting” backup quarterback Shaun Hill to injury by halftime. Six points are not nearly enough but I don’t see the Buccaneers scoring 38 on their own.

Straight Pick: Buccaneers
Spread Pick: Buccaneers – 6.0
OU Pick: Under 37.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers:

Line: Seahawks by 6.5
Over/Under: 44.0

Analysis: Seattle picked up right where they left off on opening night, while San Diego lost a heart breaker to the Cardinals early on Tuesday morning, eastern time. The Chargers don’t have nearly enough to keep up with the Carrolls, but will probably score enough to make the over. Lay the points.

Straight Pick: Seahawks
Spread Pick: Seahawks – 6.5
OU Pick: Over 44.0

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders:

Line: Texans by 3.0
Over/Under: 39.5

Analysis: Houston needed a blocked punt return to score 17 points against a bad Redskins team, while rookie starter Derek Carr was able to put up 14 points on the Jets defense. Everything about this game looks and feels like an upset. The over/under number is way too low.

Straight Pick: Raiders
Spread Pick: Raiders + 3.0
OU Pick: Over 39.5

Confidence: Low on the Straight and Over, High on the Spread

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers:

Line: Packers by 8.5
Over/Under: 46.0

Analysis: The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the National Football League, while the Packers offensive line is banged up and has a rookie at center. The Packers defense is not up to the task of slowing down the Jets running game. Take the Jets, the points, and the over.

Straight Pick: Jets
Spread Pick: Jets + 8.5
OU Pick:  Over 46.0

Confidence: Low on all three picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos:

Line: Broncos by 11.5
Over/Under: 51.0

Analysis: Denver is 15-2 at home since Peyton Manning joined them, but only 11-6 against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t as bad as they looked last week, and the betting public agrees, as this spread moved from 13 to 11.5 since Tuesday. These games tend to be low scoring, with some exceptions.

Straight Pick: Broncos
Spread Pick: Chiefs + 11.5
OU Pick: Under 51.0

Confidence: High on the Straight, Low on the Spread and Under

Chicago Bears by San Francisco Forty-Niners:

Line: Forty-Niners by 6.5
Over/Under: 51.0

Analysis: The Bears were the shocking upset favorite of week 1 and now travel out west to face the Forty-Niners in the opening game at the Field of Jeans, Levi Stadium. Chicago will be highly motivated, but so will San Francisco. Take the points.

Straight Pick: Forty-Niners
Spread Pick: Bears + 6.5
OU Pick: Over 48.5

Confidence: High on the Straight, Low on the Spread and Under

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts:

Line: Colts by 3.0
Over/Under: 48.5

Analysis: The Colts are 13-3 at home against the spread since Andrew Luck became starting quarterback. Jacksonville provided Indianapolis with a blue print for slowing down the Chip Kelly offense for half of a game. Neither defense is very good, take the over.

Straight Pick: Colts
Spread Pick: Colts – 3.0
OU Pick: Over 54.5

Confidence: High on the Straight and Spread, Low on the Over

 

If you want to play a parley: The best of the high confidence picks… Bengals, Seahawks, and Saints/Browns Under 47.5

If you’re in a suicide pool: In order, Broncos, Seahawks, Forty-Niners, and Patriots.

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