Giants 360 Picks: Week 1


We picked the Seahawks to win but not cover in a high scoring affair on Thursday night and got off to a decent start, as Seattle won the game and the over came in, but Green Bay wasn’t close to covering the spread. Injuries impacted the Packers drastically in the second half and a close game turned into a Seattle route.

Week 1 is always challenging, as teams have yet to establish their personalities for the season. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses, but the line makers in Las Vegas are well aware of that and build it into their odds. Let’s take a look at games and make take a look at who we like in week 1 action.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:

Line: Saints by 3.5
Over/Under: 51.5

Analysis: The Saints are a different team on the road, going 1-7 against the spread in 2013. The Falcons are rebuilding their offensive line and will keep it close, but Drew Brees wins a close, high scoring affair.

Straight Pick: Saints
Spread Pick: Falcons + 3.5
OU Pick: Over 51.5

Confidence: Low confidence picks on all

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams:

Line: Rams by 3.0
Over/Under: 43.0

Analysis: The Vikings were 5-3 on the road against the spread and starter Matt Cassel was their most effective quarterback. The Rams turn to journeyman Shaun Hill following Sam Bradford’s season ending injury and will need time to adjust their offense. The Vikings win in a upset.

Straight Pick: Vikings
Spread Pick: Vikings + 3.0
OU Pick: Over 43.0

Confidence: High confidence on all three picks

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers:

Line: Steelers by 7.0
Over/Under: 41.5

Analysis: Pittsburgh has lost 3 season opening games in a row, but none of those games were against Cleveland, who they are 24-3 against in the last 27 meetings. The game will be low scoring, and the Steelers win by at least a touchdown.

Straight Pick: Steelers
Spread Pick: Steelers – 7.0
OU Pick: Under 41.5

Confidence: High confidence on all picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles:

Line: Eagles by 10.0
Over/Under: 52.0

Analysis: The Jaguars will be an improved team in 2014, but they’re not quite good enough to beat the Eagles. It wouldn’t be a shocker if they keep the game close, probably not though, lay the points and take the over.

Straight Pick: Eagles
Spread Pick: Eagles – 10.0
OU Pick: Over 52.0

Confidence: High confidence on Straight, Low confidence on Spread and OU

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets:

Line: Jets by 5.0
Over/Under: 40.5

Analysis: One of the best trends in betting games is taking a bad west coast team in an early Sunday kickoff on the east coast. Another one is to not to bet any game involving the inconsistent Jets. Clashing trends say the Jets will win the game, but won’t cover the spread. Why not take the over, but based on that statement, you know the confidence is low.

Straight Pick: Jets
Spread Pick: Raiders + 5.0
OU Pick: Over 40.5

Confidence: High confidence on Straight, Low confidence on Spread and OU

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens:

Line: Ravens by 1.0
Over/Under: 42.5

Analysis: These teams are 13-13 straight in their last 26 match-ups, with the home team winning. Cincinnati is a much better home team than road against the spread. With two good defenses early in the season, expect points to be at a premium.

Straight Pick: Ravens
Spread Pick: Ravens – 1.0
OU Pick: Under 42.5

Confidence: Low confidence on all three picks

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears:

Line: Bears by 7.5
Over/Under: 48.0

Analysis: Chicago improved an already good team. Buffalo is still a work in progress and E.J. Manual looked horrid in the preseason. The Bears should win this one easily and may score 48 points by themselves at home.

Straight Pick: Bears
Spread Pick: Bears – 7.5
OU Pick: Over 48.0

Confidence: High confidence on Straight; Low confidence on Spread and OU

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans:

Line: Texans by 3.0
Over/Under: 44.5

Analysis: Two new coaching staffs, means two unknown quantities. Go with the home teams at your own peril. The Texans defense should be fierce with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on the same defense, so take the under, if you must.

Straight Pick: Texans
Spread Pick: Texans – 3.0
OU Pick: Under 44.5

Confidence: Low Confidence on all three picks

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs:

Line: Chiefs by 3.0
Over/Under: 43.5

Analysis: These teams have only played 5 times since 2004. The Chiefs should win at home in a close, low scoring game.

Straight Pick: Chiefs
Spread Pick: Titans + 3.0
OU Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: Low Confidence on all three picks

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:

Line: Patriots by 5.0
Over/Under: 46.5

Analysis: The Patriots will be in their dark blue uniforms on the sunny side of the field in Miami in September. Bill Belichick has probably had the team in full uniform in a steam room all summer to prepare. While everything about this game screams “Miami,” the Patriots have a knack for doing the unexpected.

Straight Pick: Patriots
Spread Pick: Patriots – 5.0
OU Pick: Under 46.5

Confidence: High confidence on Straight; Low confidence on Spread and OU

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Line: Buccaneers by 3.0
Over/Under: 38.5

Analysis: The Panthers were the surprise team of 2013. Tampa Bay is a candidate to be a surprise team for 2014, but not this early. Carolina’s defense and Cam Newton win this game for the visitors. Keep an eye on Cam Newton’s injury report, there’s a slim chance he doesn’t play in this game, in which case, it’s a no bet on all counts.

Straight Pick: Panthers
Spread Pick: Panthers + 3.0
OU Pick: Over 38.5

Confidence: High Confidence on all three picks (If Cam Newton plays)

San Fransisco Forty-Niners at Dallas Cowboys:

Line: Forty-Niners by 4.0
Over/Under: 51.0

Analysis: San Fransisco is hurting between injuries and suspensions, but not nearly as bad as the Dallas defense. The Forty-Niners will score early and often, the only question is, will they lay off in the fourth quarter.

Straight Pick: Forty-Niners
Spread Pick: Forty-Niners – 4.0
OU Pick: Over 51.0

Confidence: High confidence on the Straight and Spread Picks; Low confidence on the OU

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos:

Line: Broncos by 8.0
Over/Under: 55.0

Analysis: One of Denver’s regular season losses last year was when Peyton Manning visited the Colts at his former stomping grounds in Indianapolis. The rematch is in Denver, and he will extract his revenge, if the teams trade touchdowns, the Colts could cover the spread and the over is a shoe-in, but the Denver defense is improved. The Indy defense is not.

Straight Pick: Broncos
Spread Pick: Broncos – 8.0
OU Pick: Over 55.0

Confidence: High Confidence on the Straight pick; Low confidence on the Spread and the OU picks

New York Giants at Detroit Lions:

Line: Lions by 7.0
Over/Under: 48.0

Analysis: The best unit on the Lions defense is the line, the worst unit on the Giants offense is the line. If the Giants can give Eli Manning time, he can exploit the Lions weak secondary, if not, well, you understand why the game is low confidence.

Straight Pick: Lions
Spread Pick: Giants + 7.0
OU Pick: Over 48.0

Confidence: Low confidence on all three picks

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals:

Line: Cardinals by 3.0
Over/Under: 46.0

Analysis: San Diego was a surprise playoff team last season, and Arizona was a 10-6 spectator under first year coach Bruce Arians. The Cardinals front seven has suffered losses to both injury and suspensions, giving the Chargers enough of an advantage to eke out an opening night win.

Straight Pick: Chargers
Spread Pick: Chargers + 3.0
OU Pick: Over 46.0

Confidence: Low confidence on all three picks

If you want to play a parley: Go with the best of the high confidence picks – Forty-Niners -4.0, Vikings + 3.0, and Steelers/Browns Under 41.5

If you’re in a suicide pool: Pick among these teams – Eagles, Forty-Niners, Jets, and Bears.

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